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Models for gravity and heat

AJ Strata nails the core issue in How Not To Create A Historic Global Temp Index. His reference is that of keeping track of satellites. He notes the many factors that make orbit predictions longer than a week difficult. As more is learned about what influences satellite position, the model used for predicting position is improved.

This approach is in contrast to global temperature determinations where the raw data is adjusted (homogenized) in order to fit the current desired paradigm.

Basically what alarmists needed to do was not adjust data, they needed to create a thermal atmosphere model which would take into account siting characteristics both local and large. This would include distance from large bodies of water, altitude, latitude, etc. A three dimensional model that would explain why various stations have their unique siting profiles and temperature records. It would explain why temperatures near oceans fluctuate less than stations inland 100-200 miles. It would show how a global average increase of 1°C would result in a .6°C increase at high latitudes or altitudes. It would EXPLAIN the data variations in the measurements.

What this means is that the effort should not be trying to adjust raw meteorological data to create a homogenized data set than could then be subject to various statistical manipulations. Instead, create a model where you could input factors about weather station equipment and locale and have it predict a temperature that could be compared to the actual measured temperature.

In some respects, the model AJ Strata seeks is what is being used for short term weather forecasting. As far as I know, such models are not being used to qualify temperature readings in determining a global temperature index. Also, those models usually use as input an adjusted and gridded input from raw measures so they can get rather circular in their methods.

And just what is the value or meaning of a global temperature index, anyway? The earth is so large and so varied and weather phenomena so local and so small that it seems as if the effort is an attempt to average apples and oranges to be able to describe both as one thing.

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